Can the EU Trust the UK in Brexit Negotiations?
The question of trust between the UK and the EU in Brexit negotiations is currently a significant point of contention. From the October 2019 political declaration to the present, the UK has made several commitments and then backed away from them, leading to skepticism over the reliability of their promises. This article explores the key issues and examines whether the EU can trust the UK in the renegotiation of their future relationship.
The October 2019 Political Declaration
The October 2019 Political Declaration laid out the framework for a future UK-EU relationship, including commitments to respect the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and to develop an ambitious economic partnership. The declaration also emphasized the importance of a level playing field for competition.
The Discrepancy in Commitments
Despite the initial agreement, the UK has now refused to reaffirm its commitment to the ECHR and is no longer willing to commit to a level playing field, a significant departure from their earlier stance. Prime Minister Johnson's approach is summed up by his willingness to backtrack and change course to achieve his goals.
Fishing Rights and Trade
Fishing rights are one area where compromise might be possible. The UK has long sought to retain fishing rights in its waters, a point of contention in the EU. However, any deal requiring access to the UK's waters would come at a cost, including a potential free trade agreement with similar terms.
The EU's Perspective on Trust
The EU has taken a position based on insecurity, believing that the UK leaving the EU will inevitably weaken its influence. They fear that the UK will set a precedent for other members to leave, damaging the union's cohesion. However, the EU's stance is not without its flaws.
Conditions and Previous Agreements
The EU's demands for a level-playing field and access to the UK's waters are seen as unrealistic. The UK already has better trade deals with countries like Canada and South Korea, which do not require these conditions. For example, Canada's trade agreement with the EU does not come with similar conditions, raising questions about the EU's demands being unreasonable.
Economic and Political Value
The EU's demands also seem to overlook the economic and political value of free access to UK markets, similar to what they are asking for. These demands appear to be based on a misunderstanding of the UK's position and an overestimation of their own negotiating leverage.
Historical Negotiation Tactics
The recent history of negotiations shows that the EU has employed a strategy of prioritizing money over trade, a tactic that the UK found particularly unpalatable. This approach was demonstrated most clearly during Theresa May's tenure as Prime Minister, leading to a significant loss of bargaining chips for the UK.
The EU's Fears
With the current government in charge, the EU now fears a no-deal Brexit more than the UK does. The EU's position is further weakened by the repeated requests for extension of the transition period, demonstrating their vulnerability in this negotiation.
The Declining Fortune of the UK
The EU's demand for the UK to adhere to the ECHR and the ECJ while retaining market access seems increasingly untenable. The future of the global economy is shifting towards Asia, not the EU, making the EU's position seem outdated and inflexible.
Can the EU trust the UK in these negotiations? The evidence suggests a resounding no. The UK's track record of renege on commitments and the EU's unreasonable demands make it clear that a genuine and trustworthy agreement is currently impossible.