Predictions and Analysis of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

No doubt I am late to the party as the final states wind down their count. However, I do not like making 'predictions' related to electoral results, as doing so would place me at the same level as the pretentious legacy media pollsters who routinely manipulate statistics. Nonetheless, I have been correct about the presidential election every single time since 2008, regardless of who I wanted to win in all those years.

The last time I got it wrong was in 2004 when I took the word of Canadian media that George Bush was deeply unpopular, which led me to assume a win for John Kerry. In the years after 2004, social media began growing, and a larger number of people whose views did not align with traditional state television channels became more visible. My 2008 prediction of Barack Obama's victory was not based on media but on the fact that even on platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and elsewhere, Obama was more popular than John McCain.

2012 and 2016 Predictions

Going by this reasoning, I correctly guessed that Obama would win by a smaller margin against Mitt Romney in 2012. By the late summer of 2016, my bet was on Donald Trump to beat Hillary Clinton. My confidence grew after hearing from documentary filmmaker Michael Moore and The Young Turks host Cenk Uygur that the State of Michigan had more members in the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, a significant fact given that modern Michigan has historically leaned far more to the left than the right on political matters.

I was indeed surprised to see Trump win the popular vote, but states such as Michigan and Wisconsin went to Trump, which was predicted by some of the more cynical leftists approximately three months before the election. Consequently, Trump took the White House, and I did not expect my life to change, so I was not disappointed when nothing more came of it.

2020 and 2024 Predictions

In 2020, I predicted a narrow Biden win. In the first 24 hours, I was shocked to find out that Trump was leading Biden by a healthy margin. Ultimately, Trump lost, likely due to the COVID lockdown crisis, which gave Biden a chance to make his mark on American politics.

Suffice it to say, Biden was about as inept as Trump had been, but with so much more at stake, people were not interested in voting for a candidate like Kamala Harris just because she was a woman and 'not Trump.' If somebody would have asked me to hedge a bet as to who would win last night, I might have given Trump a 60% chance of winning and Kamala a 40% chance. Even among the right, the former president felt even less popular than he did in 2020, so I had no expectations of a decisive outcome, only a narrower victory for Trump.

Election Analysis

Below is a simple illustration of the end result:

Initial End Results:

From the end results, two things are crucial:

Harris's Vote Count and Trump's Vote Count: Harris lost the popular vote to a Republican for the first time since 2004. Donald Trump, as of this writing, had a vote count of 72,560,841. 2020 vs. 2024: In 2020, Trump got 74,223,975 votes, fewer than he did this time around. With the population of the USA being 345 million in 2024 compared to 329 million in 2020, Trump's margin did not increase as his popularity did not go back up. This indicates that the Democratic party's policies have disillusioned many voters from even going to the ballot box.

Swing States:

Donald Trump took Michigan and Wisconsin with smaller margins in the 2024 election. If Kamala Harris had clinched both states, Trump would have needed to win the remaining states to reach 270 seats.

Why Voters Changed Their Minds:

This could have been influenced by a few factors:

Acknowledge Faults: Kamala Harris, who clearly failed to address the question on whether citizens were better off today than in 2020. Stop Acting Optimistic: The media's portrayal of the country as all sunshine and roses did not reflect the mindset of the average person. Make Concrete Changes: Kamala Harris failed to provide tangible solutions to the issues faced, focusing instead on emotionally-driven policies. Voter Apathy: Lack of engagement from the state media encouraged voters to stay away from the polls.

These factors contributed to voter apathy, leading many to not bother voting. With the results being what they are, it is now time to stand back, watch, and see how the next four years unfold in front of our computer screens.