The Future of Gas Engines: A Global Perspective

While there's hope that internal combustion engines (ICEs) will continue to play a significant role for many more years, we must consider alternative technologies that could eventually render them obsolete. This article explores the potential shift towards synthetic fuels and electric vehicles, focusing on their environmental impact and global adoption.

Shifting to Synthetic Fuels

Could synthetic photosynthesised fuels replace fossil fuels and potentially negate CO2 emissions completely? The concept of utilizing renewable energy sources to create carbon-negative fuels is gaining traction. These synthetic fuels could indeed capture more CO2 than they produce upon combustion, offering a path towards zero net carbon emissions.

Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies, such as bio-ethanol produced from sugars, although not perfectly carbon-neutral due to the CO2 emitted during production, represent a promising direction. In contrast, synthetic fuels generated through processes like algal-based fermentation could offer a cleaner solution, as they actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere and do not contribute new emissions.

Transitioning to Battery Electric and Hydrogen Vehicles

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) is anticipated to significantly alter the automotive landscape. By 2030, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to dominate urban environments, complemented by hydrogen fuel cell buses and trucks in public transportation and freight.

The transition to these alternative powertrains will begin with hybrid vehicles. Current ICE fleets will continue to serve, extending service life. It may not be until around 2070 that ICE vehicles are predominantly found in museums and enthusiast collections. Globally, the timeline for this transition will be uneven, with developed regions leading the way.

Challenges in Widespread Adoption

While the advantages of synthetic fuels and EVs are clear, achieving global acceptance faces multiple challenges:

Infrastructure limitations: Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, struggles with electricity grids that are often unreliable. A robust power grid is essential for EV charging, making the transition slower in regions with limited or unstable electrical infrastructure.

Economic disparities: Despite continuing technological advancements, electric vehicles and synthetic fuels remain more expensive than traditional fossil fuels. Cost and accessibility remain significant barriers, particularly in economically disadvantaged regions.

Emissions from ethanol production: Fermentation processes can emit CO2, which is not factored into the net emissions of burning ethanol. Thus, while ethanol can reduce new CO2 emissions, it does not entirely negate the carbon footprint.

Moreover, the current state of the petroleum industry highlights that there is still substantial oil reserves to be utilized, leading to continued demand for ICE vehicles. The improvements made to ICE vehicles, including reduced emissions and enhanced performance, have extended their lifespan and their relevance in the automotive market.

Nevertheless, the long-term trend towards cleaner and more sustainable transportation solutions is undeniable. Innovations such as synthetic fuels, supported by advanced carbon capture technologies, and the expansion of EV infrastructure represent significant steps towards a greener future.

Thus, while the future of gas engines is uncertain, the shift towards alternative, sustainable energy sources appears to be the inevitable path for the global automotive industry, taking decades to fully materialize.